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Outlook for the raw materials markets |
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Since 2001 the raw materials markets in gold (see figure 1),
copper (see figure 2) have been moving in an upwardly
direction. Experts in the sector, such as Merril Lynch, which is
one of the market leaders for assessment of raw materials,
are speaking of a super cycle in the meantime and are basing
their assessments of the new age for raw materials on the
globalisation and the large growth potential that can be seen,
especially in the emerging markets.
Any sure forecast or prediction on how long this boom on
the raw materials markets will endure is surely very difficult
to make. If we consider, however, that the concentration of
cars in China and India is now as high as was the case in the
USA in the year 1907, we can imagine the chances that are
available in this sector.
Research shows that 99% of all Chinese nationals have not
yet sat in an aeroplane. In 15 years time, however, the ten
largest airports in the world will be operated by China. |
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| The Olympic games also and the developments for the EXPO
in the years 2008 and 2010 respectively are of extraordinary
importance for the development of China’s infrastructure. |
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| Further research clearly shows that the demand for the most
important raw materials is increasing at a ratio of about three
times the rate of economic growth. If China’s economy grows
by eight per cent, then the demand from China for the usual
raw materials in the same year will increase by ca. 25 per
cent, as will that from India also. |
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This also applies to the rest of the world. Where we had a
global economic growth in 2004 of about four per cent, global
demand increased by about twelve per cent. With supply
remaining on the same level, respectively becoming more
scarce, this resulted in noticeable price increases. |
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The demand for raw materials continues to be on the increase,
existing resources are becoming more and more scarce,
however!
We can, therefore, only repeat once again. Use this one-off
opportunity now.
Grasp it! |
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The knowledge-database
about all the metals
and minerals in South
America. |
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